Pair #12946

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATP-26USO-ALC

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the US Open Men's Singles?

Series: KXATP
Entity: Carlos Alcaraz
Expiration: 2026-09-14T05:00:00Z
Volume: 63249

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.7800
Last: 0.2400

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Rules

If Carlos Alcaraz wins the 2026 US Open Men's Singles professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPCOMPETE-26USOALC-ALC

Will Carlos Alcaraz compete in the 2026 US Open men's singles tennis tournament?

Series: KXATPCOMPETE
Entity: Carlos Alcaraz
Expiration: 2026-09-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 2247

YES ask: 0.8400
NO ask: 0.1700
Last: 0.8400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Carlos Alcaraz competes in the 2026 US Open men's singles tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:00:46Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: Winning the US Open requires competing in it.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -94.85% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6200 + ~$0.0214 est. fees
Days to maturity: 61
Hurdle yield: 4.32%
Excess yield: -99.17% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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