Pair #12945

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATP1RANK-26DEC31-CALC

Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026?

Series: KXATP1RANK
Entity: Carlos Alcaraz
Expiration: 2026-12-31T17:00:00Z
Volume: 13844

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Carlos Alcaraz is the #1 ranked on the PIF ATP singles rankings on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPCOMPETE-26USOALC-ALC

Will Carlos Alcaraz compete in the 2026 US Open men's singles tennis tournament?

Series: KXATPCOMPETE
Entity: Carlos Alcaraz
Expiration: 2026-09-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 2247

YES ask: 0.8400
NO ask: 0.1700
Last: 0.8400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Carlos Alcaraz competes in the 2026 US Open men's singles tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:00:46Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: Being #1 ranked at year end doesn't require competing in the US Open, nor vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -73.71% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8400 + ~$0.0094 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -78.15% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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