Pair #12939

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-TOK

Will Tom Kim lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 410

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Kim is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-TKIM

The Open Championship: Will Tom Kim make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1394

YES ask: 0.7000
NO ask: 0.3200
Last: 0.7000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Kim has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-SSCH/KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-SSCH] The cut is determined after round 2; the player leading at that point necessarily has a qualifying score and therefore has made the cut.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7000 + ~$0.0147 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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