Pair #12937

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-CMOR

Will Collin Morikawa lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 407

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-CMOR

The Open Championship: Will Collin Morikawa make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 310

YES ask: 0.7300
NO ask: 0.3000
Last: 0.7300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-SSCH/KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-SSCH] The cut is determined after round 2; the player leading at that point necessarily has a qualifying score and therefore has made the cut.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7300 + ~$0.0138 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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