Pair #12934

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-VPER

The Open Championship: Will Victor Perez finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Victor Perez
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1814

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Victor Perez finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-VPER

The Open Championship: Will Victor Perez finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Victor Perez
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 214

YES ask: 0.3900
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.4100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Victor Perez finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-MTHO/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MTHO] [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top10 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.70% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3100 + ~$0.0218 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.93% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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