Pair #12931

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-VPER

The Open Championship: Will Victor Perez finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Victor Perez
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 643

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.8200
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Victor Perez finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-VPER

The Open Championship: Will Victor Perez finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Victor Perez
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 214

YES ask: 0.3900
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.4100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Victor Perez finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-MTHO/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MTHO] [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top20 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -98.66% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2100 + ~$0.0270 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -102.89% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue