Pair #12924

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-KMIT

The Open Championship: Will Keith Mitchell finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Keith Mitchell
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 811

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keith Mitchell finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-KMIT

The Open Championship: Will Keith Mitchell finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Keith Mitchell
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 839

YES ask: 0.3400
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keith Mitchell finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-MTHO/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MTHO] [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top20 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -98.34% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2000 + ~$0.0241 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -102.57% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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