Pair #12923

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-KMIT

The Open Championship: Will Keith Mitchell finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Keith Mitchell
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 839

YES ask: 0.3400
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keith Mitchell finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-KMIT

The Open Championship: Will Keith Mitchell make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Keith Mitchell
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 279

YES ask: 0.5900
NO ask: 0.4200
Last: 0.5900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keith Mitchell has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MJOR/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MJOR] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top40 finish requires having made the cut, though making the cut alone doesn't guarantee top40.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.99% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5500 + ~$0.0196 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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