Pair #12922

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-RHIS

The Open Championship: Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 698

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryo Hisatsune finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-RHIS

The Open Championship: Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 524

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryo Hisatsune finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-MTHO/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MTHO] [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top10 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.18% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2500 + ~$0.0171 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.41% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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