Pair #12919

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-RHIS

The Open Championship: Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 524

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryo Hisatsune finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-RHIS

The Open Championship: Will Ryo Hisatsune make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 352

YES ask: 0.5400
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryo Hisatsune has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MJOR/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MJOR] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top40 finish requires having made the cut, though making the cut alone doesn't guarantee top40.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.98% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4900 + ~$0.0207 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.21% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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