Pair #12915

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JNIC

The Open Championship: Will James Nicholas finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: James Nicholas
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3142

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules If James Nicholas finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JNIC

The Open Championship: Will James Nicholas make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: James Nicholas
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1399

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If James Nicholas has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MJOR/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MJOR] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top40 finish requires having made the cut, though making the cut alone doesn't guarantee top40.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -98.70% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2200 + ~$0.0190 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -102.93% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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