Pair #12914

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-ARAI

The Open Championship: Will Aaron Rai finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Aaron Rai
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1130

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Aaron Rai finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-ARAI

The Open Championship: Will Aaron Rai finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Aaron Rai
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 235

YES ask: 0.5200
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.5200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Aaron Rai finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP40-THOC26-RMCI/KXPGATOP5-THOC26-RMCI] [structural reuse of KXPGATOP5-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top5 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.96% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4500 + ~$0.0220 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.19% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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