Pair #12911

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-ARAI

The Open Championship: Will Aaron Rai finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Aaron Rai
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3748

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7000
Last: 0.3100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aaron Rai finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-ARAI

The Open Championship: Will Aaron Rai finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Aaron Rai
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 235

YES ask: 0.5200
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.5200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aaron Rai finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-MTHO/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MTHO] [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top20 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -98.95% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2200 + ~$0.0322 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.18% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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