Pair #12910

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-ARAI

The Open Championship: Will Aaron Rai finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Aaron Rai
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 8955

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.1600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aaron Rai finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-ARAI

The Open Championship: Will Aaron Rai finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Aaron Rai
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 235

YES ask: 0.5200
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.5200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aaron Rai finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-MTHO/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MTHO] [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top10 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.89% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3700 + ~$0.0264 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.12% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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