Pair #1291

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-BCAM

Valspar Championship: Will Brian Campbell make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Brian Campbell
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 759

YES ask: 0.3000
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Brian Campbell makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-BCAM

Valspar Championship: Will Brian Campbell finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Brian Campbell
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6184

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Brian Campbell finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:22:53Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not necessitate a top 10 finish (could finish outside top 10 after the cut). Finishing top 10 does imply making the cut, so the implication runs from top 10 to making cut, but that direction is ticker_b to ticker_a. Top 10 finish (ticker_b YES) → made cut (ticker_a YES).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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