Pair #12905

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-HLI

The Open Championship: Will Hao-Tong Li finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Hao-Tong Li
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 655

YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hao-Tong Li finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-HLI

The Open Championship: Will Hao-Tong Li make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Hao-Tong Li
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 2366

YES ask: 0.5100
NO ask: 0.5000
Last: 0.5100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hao-Tong Li has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MJOR/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MJOR] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top40 finish requires having made the cut, though making the cut alone doesn't guarantee top40.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.95% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4400 + ~$0.0221 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.18% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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