Pair #12902

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-HLI

The Open Championship: Will Hao-Tong Li finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Hao-Tong Li
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 5132

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hao-Tong Li finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-HLI

The Open Championship: Will Hao-Tong Li finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Hao-Tong Li
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 655

YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hao-Tong Li finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-MTHO/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MTHO] [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top10 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.01% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2400 + ~$0.0158 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.24% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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