Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP5-THOC26-WCLA
The Open Championship: Will Wyndham Clark finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 4404
YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Wyndham Clark finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP40-THOC26-WCLA
The Open Championship: Will Wyndham Clark finish top 40?
Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2709
YES ask: 0.5200
NO ask: 0.5800
Last: 0.5400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Wyndham Clark finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP40-THOC26-RMCI/KXPGATOP5-THOC26-RMCI] [structural reuse of KXPGATOP5-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top5 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-99.94%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.4200
+ ~$0.0238 est. fees
Days to maturity:
18
Hurdle yield:
4.23%
Excess yield:
-104.17%
BELOW HURDLE