Pair #129

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-DEN

What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3973

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Tyreek Hill's next team is Denver before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCWEST-27-DEN

Will Denver win the Pro Football AFC West Division?

Series: KXNFLAFCWEST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 29426

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.3100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver wins the Pro Football AFC West Division, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:02:00Z

Reasoning: Tyreek Hill signing with Denver does not logically necessitate Denver winning the AFC West, nor does Denver winning the AFC West require Hill to be on the team. These are correlated at best, not logically necessary.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -36.91% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3100
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -41.19% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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