Pair #12892

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-WCLA

Will Wyndham Clark finish as the top American golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-07-17T17:38:37.305023Z
Volume: 6763

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Wyndham Clark records the lowest total strokes among all American golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-WCLA

The Open Championship: Will Wyndham Clark finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 30954

YES ask: 0.3400
NO ask: 0.6700
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Wyndham Clark finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-SSCH/KXPGATOP20-THOC26-SSCH] Top 20 finish does not guarantee being the top American finisher.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3100 + ~$0.0177 est. fees
Days to maturity: 1
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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