Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-WCLA
Will Wyndham Clark finish as the top American golfer in the tournament?
Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-07-17T17:38:37.305023Z
Volume: 6763
YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Wyndham Clark records the lowest total strokes among all American golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-WCLA
Will Wyndham Clark lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Open Championship?
Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 946
YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Wyndham Clark is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-SSCH/KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-SSCH] A Round 2 lead does not guarantee the best final score among Americans.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-77.33%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0000
+ ~$0.0041 est. fees
Days to maturity:
1
Hurdle yield:
4.23%
Excess yield:
-81.56%
BELOW HURDLE