Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-WCLA
Will Wyndham Clark lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Open Championship?
Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 946
YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Wyndham Clark is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOUR-THOC26-WCLA
Will Wyndham Clark win the The Open Championship?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2094558
YES ask: 0.0240
NO ask: 0.9770
Last: 0.0240
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Wyndham Clark wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-SSCH/KXPGATOUR-THOC26-SSCH] Leading after round 2 does not guarantee winning the tournament, since the outcome can change over the final rounds.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-41.93%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0240
+ ~$0.0016 est. fees
Days to maturity:
17
Hurdle yield:
4.23%
Excess yield:
-46.16%
BELOW HURDLE