Pair #12888

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-WCLA

Will Wyndham Clark lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 55430

YES ask: 0.0210
NO ask: 0.9820
Last: 0.0210

View on Kalshi

Rules If Wyndham Clark is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-WCLA

Will Wyndham Clark lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 946

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Wyndham Clark is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-SSCH/KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-SSCH] Leading after round 2 does not require having led after round 1, and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -27.78% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0120 + ~$0.0033 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -32.01% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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