Pair #12881

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-RMCI

Will Rory McIlroy lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 143762

YES ask: 0.0350
NO ask: 0.9720
Last: 0.0350

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rory McIlroy is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-RMCI

Will Rory McIlroy lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 414

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rory McIlroy is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-SSCH/KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-SSCH] Leading after round 2 does not require having led after round 1, and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -54.96% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0320 + ~$0.0059 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -59.19% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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