Pair #12879

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-RMCI

Will Rory McIlroy lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 414

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0700

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Rules

If Rory McIlroy is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-RMCI

The Open Championship: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 25699

YES ask: 0.4000
NO ask: 0.6100
Last: 0.4000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-SSCH/KXPGATOP10-THOC26-SSCH] Leading after round 2 does not guarantee a top-10 finish (could fade), and a top-10 finish does not require having led after round 2.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.93% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3800 + ~$0.0182 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.16% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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