Antecedent (if this happens)
KXOWGRRANK-26AUGT20-RMCI
Will Rory McIlroy be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Aug 3, 2026?
Series: KXOWGRRANK
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-08-03T14:00:00Z
Volume: 220
YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.9900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Rory McIlroy is ranked in the top 20 (including ties) on the Official World Golf Ranking on August 3rd, 2026 at 10:00am EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-RMCI
Will Rory McIlroy lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Open Championship?
Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 414
YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Rory McIlroy is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXOWGRRANK-26AUGT20-SSCH/KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-SSCH] World ranking status and leading after Round 2 of The Open are independent facts with no logical dependency.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-51.17%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0300
+ ~$0.0060 est. fees
Days to maturity:
18
Hurdle yield:
4.23%
Excess yield:
-55.40%
BELOW HURDLE