Pair #12875

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-PREE

The Open Championship: Will Patrick Reed finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 6381

YES ask: 0.5100
NO ask: 0.5400
Last: 0.5100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Reed finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-PREE

The Open Championship: Will Patrick Reed make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 340

YES ask: 0.6900
NO ask: 0.3300
Last: 0.6900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Reed has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MJOR/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MJOR] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top40 finish requires having made the cut, though making the cut alone doesn't guarantee top40.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.11% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2300 + ~$0.0324 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.34% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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