Pair #12872

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-CSMI

The Open Championship: Will Cameron Smith finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 224

YES ask: 0.3000
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.3000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-CSMI

The Open Championship: Will Cameron Smith make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 2173

YES ask: 0.5400
NO ask: 0.4700
Last: 0.5400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MJOR/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MJOR] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top40 finish requires having made the cut, though making the cut alone doesn't guarantee top40.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.98% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5100 + ~$0.0194 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.21% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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