Pair #12869

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-CSMI

The Open Championship: Will Cameron Smith finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2929

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-CSMI

The Open Championship: Will Cameron Smith finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 224

YES ask: 0.3000
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.3000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-MTHO/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MTHO] [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top10 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.06% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2400 + ~$0.0186 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.29% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue