Pair #12868

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVCOMPETE-27APR-CSMI

Cameron Smith to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)?

Series: KXLIVCOMPETE
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2027-04-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 231

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith competes in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027), then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-CSMI

The Open Championship: Will Cameron Smith finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 224

YES ask: 0.3000
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.3000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXLIVCOMPETE-27APR-BDEC/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-BDEC] [structural reuse of KXLIVCOMPETE-27APR-JRAH/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JRAH] Different tournaments and time periods with no logical connection.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -20.20% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1500 + ~$0.0236 est. fees
Days to maturity: 259
Hurdle yield: 4.48%
Excess yield: -24.68% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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