Pair #12864

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BGRI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3393

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Griffin wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-BGRI

The Open Championship: Will Ben Griffin finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 428

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Griffin finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PREE/KXPGATOP10-THOC26-PREE] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BCAU/KXPGATOP10-THOC26-BCAU] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMAC/KXPGATOP10-THOC26-RMAC] Winning any of the four majors could be achieved via a different major (e.g., Masters), so it doesn't require a top-10 finish at The Open; and a top-10 finish at The Open doesn't mean winning a major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -23.11% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1200 + ~$0.0086 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -27.56% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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