Pair #12862

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-ASCO

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2620

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adam Scott wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-ASCO

The Open Championship: Will Adam Scott finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2350

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.7900
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adam Scott finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CSMI/KXPGATOP20-THOC26-CSMI] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PREE/KXPGATOP20-THOC26-PREE] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BCAU/KXPGATOP20-THOC26-BCAU] Winning any major doesn't require winning/placing top20 specifically at The Open Championship, since he could win a different major instead.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -35.39% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2100 + ~$0.0127 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -39.83% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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