Pair #12860

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-CCON

The Open Championship: Will Corey Conners finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 770

YES ask: 0.4200
NO ask: 0.6900
Last: 0.4300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Corey Conners finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-CCON

The Open Championship: Will Corey Conners make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 323

YES ask: 0.6400
NO ask: 0.3700
Last: 0.6400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Corey Conners has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MJOR/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MJOR] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top40 finish requires having made the cut, though making the cut alone doesn't guarantee top40.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.81% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3300 + ~$0.0311 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.04% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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