Pair #12853

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-RHEN

The Open Championship: Will Russell Henley finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 410

YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-RHEN

The Open Championship: Will Russell Henley make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 689

YES ask: 0.7200
NO ask: 0.2900
Last: 0.7100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MJOR/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MJOR] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top40 finish requires having made the cut, though making the cut alone doesn't guarantee top40.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6900 + ~$0.0161 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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