Pair #1285

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-BCAM

Will Brian Campbell lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Brian Campbell
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1297

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Campbell is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-BCAM

Valspar Championship: Will Brian Campbell finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Brian Campbell
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6184

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Campbell finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:22:53Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not necessitate finishing top 10 (could fall back), and finishing top 10 does not necessitate leading after Round 1 (could start mid-pack and climb).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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