Pair #12845

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SSTRA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sepp Straka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8013

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sepp Straka wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-SSTR

The Open Championship: Will Sepp Straka finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Sepp Straka
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 4475

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sepp Straka finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PREE/KXPGATOP10-THOC26-PREE] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BCAU/KXPGATOP10-THOC26-BCAU] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMAC/KXPGATOP10-THOC26-RMAC] Winning any of the four majors could be achieved via a different major (e.g., Masters), so it doesn't require a top-10 finish at The Open; and a top-10 finish at The Open doesn't mean winning a major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -14.46% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0700 + ~$0.0046 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -18.90% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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