Pair #12840

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-SLOW

The Open Championship: Will Shane Lowry finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 205

YES ask: 0.5500
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-SLOW

The Open Championship: Will Shane Lowry make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 269

YES ask: 0.7200
NO ask: 0.3000
Last: 0.7200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MJOR/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MJOR] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top40 finish requires having made the cut, though making the cut alone doesn't guarantee top40.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -98.76% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2100 + ~$0.0316 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -102.99% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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