Pair #1284

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-BCAM

Valspar Championship: Will Brian Campbell make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Brian Campbell
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 759

YES ask: 0.3000
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Brian Campbell makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-BCAM

Will Brian Campbell lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Brian Campbell
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1297

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Brian Campbell is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:22:36Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could theoretically lead R1 but miss the cut after R2), and making the cut does not require having led after R1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.8500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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