Pair #12837

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-SLOW

The Open Championship: Will Shane Lowry finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 6623

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-SLOW

The Open Championship: Will Shane Lowry finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 205

YES ask: 0.5500
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-MTHO/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MTHO] [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top10 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.91% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3900 + ~$0.0267 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.14% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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