Pair #12833

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-THAT

The Open Championship: Will Tyrrell Hatton finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 323

YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-THAT

The Open Championship: Will Tyrrell Hatton make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 474

YES ask: 0.7100
NO ask: 0.3100
Last: 0.7100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MJOR/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MJOR] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top40 finish requires having made the cut, though making the cut alone doesn't guarantee top40.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6800 + ~$0.0165 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue