Pair #12830

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-THAT

The Open Championship: Will Tyrrell Hatton finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2743

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-THAT

The Open Championship: Will Tyrrell Hatton finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 323

YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-MTHO/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MTHO] [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top10 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.80% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3300 + ~$0.0286 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.03% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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