Antecedent (if this happens)
KXLIVCOMPETE-27APR-THAT
Tyrrell Hatton to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)?
Series: KXLIVCOMPETE
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2027-04-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 647
YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.8200
Last: 0.1800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tyrrell Hatton competes in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027), then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP40-THOC26-THAT
The Open Championship: Will Tyrrell Hatton finish top 40?
Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 323
YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.5300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tyrrell Hatton finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXLIVCOMPETE-27APR-BDEC/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-BDEC] [structural reuse of KXLIVCOMPETE-27APR-JRAH/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JRAH] Different tournaments and time periods with no logical connection.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-36.34%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.3500
+ ~$0.0278 est. fees
Days to maturity:
259
Hurdle yield:
4.48%
Excess yield:
-40.82%
BELOW HURDLE