Pair #12825

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-MMCN

The Open Championship: Will Maverick McNealy finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 413

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MMCN

The Open Championship: Will Maverick McNealy finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 256

YES ask: 0.4000
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.4100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP40-THOC26-RMCI/KXPGATOP5-THOC26-RMCI] [structural reuse of KXPGATOP5-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top5 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.83% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3500 + ~$0.0201 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.06% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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