Pair #12823

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MMCN

The Open Championship: Will Maverick McNealy finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 256

YES ask: 0.4000
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.4100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MMCN

The Open Championship: Will Maverick McNealy make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1029

YES ask: 0.6300
NO ask: 0.3800
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MJOR/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MJOR] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top40 finish requires having made the cut, though making the cut alone doesn't guarantee top40.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.99% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6000 + ~$0.0184 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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