Pair #12821

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-MMCN

The Open Championship: Will Maverick McNealy finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 761

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.7900
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MMCN

The Open Championship: Will Maverick McNealy finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 256

YES ask: 0.4000
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.4100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-MTHO/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MTHO] [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top20 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -98.18% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1900 + ~$0.0284 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -102.41% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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