Pair #1282

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-BCAM

Will Brian Campbell lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Brian Campbell
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1297

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Campbell is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-BCAM

Will Brian Campbell win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Brian Campbell
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 1755692

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Campbell wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:22:36Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 of the Valspar has no logical connection to winning the Masters Tournament. These are entirely separate events. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0010
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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