Pair #12818

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MMCN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3222

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-MMCN

The Open Championship: Will Maverick McNealy finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 413

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PREE/KXPGATOP5-THOC26-PREE] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JRAH/KXPGATOP5-THOC26-JRAH] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SLOW/KXPGATOP5-THOC26-SLOW] Winning any major (possibly not The Open Championship) doesn't guarantee a top 5 finish there, and a top 5 finish there doesn't guarantee a major win.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -10.92% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0500 + ~$0.0046 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -15.36% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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