Pair #12813

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-LABE

Will Ludvig Aberg win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 816121

YES ask: 0.0250
NO ask: 0.9760
Last: 0.0250

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ludvig Aberg wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-LABE

The Open Championship: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 559

YES ask: 0.5600
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.5700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MTHO/KXPGATOUR-THOC26-MTHO] [structural reuse of KXPGATOUR-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] Winning the tournament is the best possible finish, which is within the top40.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5360 + ~$0.0189 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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