Pair #12812

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-LABE

The Open Championship: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 559

YES ask: 0.5600
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.5700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-LABE

The Open Championship: Will Ludvig Aberg make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 3544

YES ask: 0.7300
NO ask: 0.2800
Last: 0.7300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MJOR/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MJOR] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top40 finish requires having made the cut, though making the cut alone doesn't guarantee top40.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6200 + ~$0.0207 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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