Pair #12810

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-LABE

The Open Championship: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 8544

YES ask: 0.3700
NO ask: 0.6400
Last: 0.3700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-LABE

The Open Championship: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 559

YES ask: 0.5600
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.5700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-MTHO/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MTHO] [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top20 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -98.58% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2000 + ~$0.0334 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -102.81% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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